Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 104

In other words, although France was embroiled in internal strife over the separation of church and state in 1906, it ironically mitigated the damage to patriotism caused by the Dreyfus Affair, thus allowing patriotism to supersede class struggle. To put it another way, France had already prepared the ideological groundwork for a revenge war against Germany.

The Germans were completely unaware of the shift in French public opinion, believing only that France was currently embroiled in internal strife and, to avoid triggering a renewed reunification within France, that Germany should not threaten it with force. In other words, Berlin felt that France would collapse on its own without their intervention, so there was no need for a military offensive.

It was precisely this naive thinking of the Germans that caused Berlin to hesitate regarding the Wuhan proposal. However, the French cabinet was gradually unifying its thinking: no politician would announce Franco-German reconciliation to the French people, as that would mean the death of their political career. The debate centered on whether to resolve domestic conflicts before reclaiming lost territory, or to resolve domestic conflicts through the reclamation of lost territory.

The pro-British foreign policy formulated by Théophile del Cassel during his tenure as Foreign Minister was continued by the French Foreign Ministry after his resignation. This means that France continued its diplomatic strategy of isolating Germany in preparation for the war against Germany.

These French politicians were well aware that being declared war on by the Chinese while they were vigorously promoting patriotism meant that if France did not respond, it would be tantamount to bankrupting patriotism. This would spur the French people to turn to socialism and would mean that France would truly be on the verge of civil war, such as a revolution like the Paris Commune.

However, if they respond to the Chinese declaration of war, it will not only arouse British suspicion but also cause the situation in Europe to spiral out of control. Will Germany really let this opportunity for France to send troops into the Far East pass by unchecked? No one can guarantee that.

Georges Clemenceau, the Interior Minister who maintained a strong position in Ferdinand Salian's cabinet, argued in a secret cabinet meeting at the end of May that "regardless of whether the Chinese have the power to challenge the French Republic, we should avoid giving them the opportunity to declare war, otherwise the Republic will be mired in a real quagmire. In particular, the army should stop all actions against China. Now is not the time for the Republic to expand its influence in South China. If the Chinese use this as an excuse to declare war on France, we will not even have room for defense."

Clemenceau's reference to the army's actions refers to the fact that in July of last year, the Minister of War, Étienne, instructed the French military staff officer stationed in Tianjin, Bougainville, to contact revolutionary forces in China. Ultimately, through the Japanese, they contacted Sun Yat-sen of the Tongmenghui (Revolutionary Alliance) and invited him to Saigon for several talks. In exchange for France issuing bonds for him, they demanded that Sun Yat-sen recognize France's special rights in South China.

Étienne's actions were very secretive, not only keeping them from his cabinet colleagues, but also from the French Indochina Governor-General's Office and the French Minister to China. However, Sun Yat-sen would not keep it a secret for the French. He boasted loudly that the Tongmenghui had the support of Britain, Japan, and France, and had reached an agreement with Wuhan, so everyone should support him.

Wuhan quickly learned of this intelligence and had Qin Lishan inform the French minister Pasteur, stating that Wuhan would never recognize France's privileges in South China and warning France not to arbitrarily provoke internal strife in China.

When Pasteur relayed this news back to Paris, it naturally caused an uproar in the cabinet. Clemenceau had no liking for the army's secret operations and strongly demanded that the army stop any adventures in the East. In fact, he had already decided to remove Étienne, this right-wing figure, from his position as Minister of War.

Although Finance Minister Poingale was a supporter of the army and an advocate of the reconquest of lost territories, he could only suggest a suspension of Eastern affairs due to the dissatisfaction expressed by Clemenceau and other cabinet colleagues.

However, regarding whether or not to accept the Chinese's blackmail, both Poincaré and Clemenceau believed that the conditions proposed by the Chinese were blackmail against France.

However, Puengale advocated delaying until the Russians gained the upper hand on the battlefield before giving the Chinese a little reward, so that they would not take the risk.

Clemenceau, however, believed that an agreement should be reached with the Chinese before the Germans reached an agreement with Wuhan, in order to avoid the most dangerous situation.

According to Clemenceau, the Chinese were not asking for much. France had invested as much as 450 billion francs in foreign bonds, and China only wanted a loan of less than one percent of that amount. France would only lose the rights to a northern railway, and the north was never part of France's sphere of influence. So why not conclude a friendly agreement with them sooner to put their minds at ease? If the Germans were to attack, at least several billion francs would be wiped out.

On this issue, Poincaré insisted on his own opinion, and the others could only persuade the two of them that it would be better to let Pasteur talk to the Chinese first, reach a result, and then discuss whether or not to give it to them. Clemenceau ultimately had no choice but to make a concession.

However, the situation in China changed too quickly. Before Pasteur and Qin Lishan could reach any conclusion, on June 5, the newspapers suddenly published news that the Russian western army was surrounded by Chinese troops, which left Pasteur and other French diplomats in China dumbfounded.

They knew that Wuhan had sent a large number of troops north, but they did not think that these Chinese troops could inflict any serious damage on the Russians; it would be quite good if they could just repel the Russian troops.

This also explains the French people's superstition about the Russian army, believing that it was at least capable of competing with the German army. After all, it was the Russians who shattered Napoleon's dream of unifying Europe, which is the fundamental reason why France was determined to ally with Russia to deal with Germany.

So, how could a Russian army comparable to the German army be defeated by a group of yellow-skinned people with queues? The Chinese couldn't even defeat the Japanese, while the Russians often claimed that one Russian soldier could take on three Japanese soldiers. So how could the Russian army be surrounded by a Chinese army that was less than twice its size?

What frustrated Pasteur most was Qin Lishan's new speech on behalf of Wuhan in Parliament. He declared: "Until the Russians withdraw from our territory and compensate us for the damage they have caused, our country should not pay any more principal or interest on its debts to Russia… As the war has progressed to this point, we must not only be wary of the Russians continuing to escalate their invasion of our country, but also of their allies threatening us with war or using bribery and other means to create internal strife… In order to defend our country's independence and freedom, I strongly urge Parliament to declare the above actions as acts of war, and we have the right to declare war and retaliate…"

The French understood perfectly well that Qin Lishan's words were tantamount to pushing China to formally declare war on France. Pasteur had no choice but to invite Qin Lishan back to his office for a reassessment of Sino-French relations. During this meeting, Pasteur first assured Qin Lishan that there would be no problem with the redemption of the Zhengtai Railway rights, but then asked how China would defend the friendship between France and China.

After a moment's thought, Qin Lishan replied to Pasteur: "China is a vast country. The combined area of ​​just one or two of our provinces is as large as a European country. Therefore, although we have reached an agreement with Germany and introduced a lot of German industrial technology and capital, it is not enough to cover the entire industrial transformation of China given its size."

Therefore, we still have a place to absorb French capital and technology. As long as France truly abandons its colonial and imperialist ideology, we believe that a close relationship can be established between China and France through construction.

For example, the coal and iron resources in Shanxi need to be developed. I've heard that France's steel technology is no worse than Germany's, and France's aluminum smelting industry is the best in Europe; the aluminum we import comes from France. We believe that China can not only process aluminum but also produce it, because we also have abundant bauxite resources…”

This time, the negotiations between the two sides were much more frank than before, and the consensus reached was also more consistent. On June 8, Pasteur telegraphed Paris, reporting not only the conditions proposed by Qin Lishan, but also his own views: "At least one thing is certain, the Chinese do not really have the desire to wage war against us; all they want is a loan."

Yuan Shikai instructed his subordinates to publish news of the encirclement of the Russian Western Route Army. This not only forced the French to make concessions regarding Wuhan but also greatly shocked the Russians. Although the Far East Russian Military Governor's Office had received intelligence from Yuan Shikai, it hadn't paid much attention to it because Governor Alekseyev couldn't send any more troops to Starklberg due to logistical difficulties. He could only wait nonchalantly for Starklberg to resolve the problem itself.

However, before Alekseev could even relay the intelligence that the Chinese had mobilized a large number of troops to Shanxi to Starklberg, the Chinese had already announced the encirclement of Starklberg. The Russian Far East forces were thrown into chaos.

Chapter 368 The Three Kingdoms of East Asia

When news of General Starkelberg's encirclement by the Chinese reached St. Petersburg, the high-ranking officials who advocated adventures in the Far East fell silent. Army Minister Kurobatkin, left with no other option, had to personally deliver this bad news to Tsar Nicholas II, who was hunting at the time.

Nicholas II remained silent upon hearing the devastating news and continued his hunting game until the hunt was over. Only then did he ask Kurobatekine what he had come to tell him.

The Tsar's calm demeanor initially terrified Kurobatkin, who thought he would be held responsible for the war. However, he nervously told the Tsar, "This war is because we were not prepared enough. Our troops in the Far East lack mountain guns and machine guns, as well as explosive shells... Alekseev, as a naval commander, lacks leadership skills in the army..."

To his surprise, Nicholas II was not angered by his ramblings. Instead, he asked the War Ministry for a new plan for operations in the Far East, which finally put Kurobatkin at ease. Although he had passed the test with Nicholas II, he was still very surprised by the Tsar's indifference to the army's casualties. It was as if the Russian army surrounded by the Chinese was not just more than 2 men, but merely a dish that he disliked.

At such a moment, Kurobatkin dared not hand over the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Far Eastern Armed Forces to anyone else, because that would mean that someone else could audit the Far Eastern Army's spending from 1898 to the present. If such an audit were conducted, both he and Alekseev would be finished.

Therefore, while Kurobatkin was working to get himself the position of commander of the Far East Armed Forces, he also sent a telegram to Alekseev, asking him to sort out the accounts as soon as possible and not make things too messy.

Kurobatkin's concerns were not unfounded. At least Count Witte, alienated by the Tsar, expressed great skepticism about the Russian military's actions in the Far East. He reiterated his advocacy for restoring peace with China and ending the war between the two countries, arguing that "the greatest threat to our country in the Far East is Japan, not China, because Japan is actively vying with us for dominance on the Far Eastern continent, while China is merely content to coast along. I don't understand why we should wake someone who is pretending to be asleep while ignoring another aggressive little guy?"

The siege of General Starkelberg caused a group of liberals who had previously remained neutral on the Far East war to turn against it. Under such great public pressure, Prime Minister Goremygin finally raised the issue with the Tsar that a peaceful solution to the Far East conflict should be sought.

Therefore, on June 9, the Russian Minister to China proposed to the Qing Ministry of Foreign Affairs that if China was willing to accept a ceasefire now, Russia could consider returning the area south of Tieling to China. As for Outer Mongolia, Russia only requested the area of ​​Kulun and the area north of the Kerulen River. Russia and China could conduct border demarcation negotiations on this basis.

However, by this time the Qing government had completely lost its authority. After the Manchu imperial family led the escape and the Hubei New Army and Beiyang Army joined forces to surround the Russian Western Route Army, the country lost confidence in the Manchus continuing to rule. Some gentry turned to support constitutionalism and Yuan Shikai, while progressive intellectuals and the lower classes supported Wuhan.

Previously, the Manchu imperial family members who publicly advocated defending their ancestors' honor were now all silent. They suddenly realized that there were no Manchu warriors around them willing to die for the Qing Dynasty; everyone was just talking. Now, the Han Chinese didn't even respect the Russians anymore. If they actually took their words seriously, they would truly be doomed.

Although a couple of Manchus tried to encourage their own people, such as Liangbi, the commander of the Second Division of the Beiyang Army, no one was willing to listen to him. After all, Liangbi was just a poor man from a poor family. Yuan Shikai only promoted him because he was a Manchu, but he was not even a little finger among the Manchu nobles.

Tie Liang, the Manchu nobleman who truly held sway, is currently under house arrest in Wuhan. Originally, Wuhan wanted to maintain peaceful relations with Beijing, so it retained the title of Governor-General of Huguang. However, since the Manchu nobles insisted on using force to resolve the Wuhan rebellion, Wuhan simply detained Tie Liang and then brazenly issued orders to the entire province in the name of the Wuhan Workers', Peasants' and Soldiers' Committee.

The Yi Army's failed southward advance led to a complete breakdown in relations between Beijing and Wuhan. Wuhan expelled the lower-ranking Manchus to the north, but notably spared the release of Tie Liang and Duan Fang. Consequently, the Manchu nobility in Beijing couldn't even find a core figure for reform. Although Puwei enjoyed high prestige among the younger imperial clansmen, he lacked any real talent, which explains his embarrassing situation of being appointed as a military supervisor by the imperial clansmen.

This incident not only caused the Manchus to lose all face, but also made him the object of ridicule. Although he didn't personally supervise the army, those he sent to supervise were all his usual cronies. As the saying goes, "Wu Dalang plays with night owls," and since you're surrounded by night owls, aren't you just like Wu Dalang?

Therefore, in the past, it was difficult for imperial orders to leave Beijing, but now even within Beijing city limits, they were not very effective. The most bewildered were those who blindly fawned upon the Manchus. Almost overnight, the people lost their awe of the Manchus, and these Han Chinese who advocated loyalty to the Qing Dynasty were suddenly regarded as traitors who betrayed their compatriots. Public opinion on labeling Li Hongzhang a traitor surged.

Under such circumstances, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs dared not hand over the Russian ultimatum to Empress Dowager Cixi without authorization. Instead, it obediently notified Tianjin and Wuhan first. As a result, an extremely rare situation arose in which the court represented by Cixi actually lost the power to participate in political decision-making.

Having just established himself as the commander-in-chief against Russia, Yuan Shikai naturally couldn't appear too weak on such an agreement. So he passed the buck back, believing that the matter should be left to the court for public comment.

However, Wuhan would not let such an opportunity pass. After receiving the telegram, Tian Junyi convened a meeting and told the committee members: "The Qing government has lost its authority and has no choice but to release the power of the central government. Under such circumstances, we cannot refuse. Refusing would be to objectively maintain the ruling position of the Qing government."

Yuan Shikai wants to claim credit for resisting Russia, no problem, as long as he continues to resist Russia, we will acknowledge his merits. However, there are two points we cannot concede: one is the leadership in resisting Russian aggression, and the other is the right to discuss national politics. If the Qing government dares to relinquish these rights, why shouldn't we accept them?

On June 10, Qin Lishan proposed a new motion in the National Assembly. After publicly stating the conditions put forward by the Russian side, he bluntly told the members of parliament: "Our Workers' Party and the Workers', Peasants' and Soldiers' Committee firmly oppose the demand for an immediate ceasefire. Unless Russia first acknowledges the fact of its invasion of our country and guarantees a complete withdrawal from our territory, we will never talk about a ceasefire with the enemy who is still invading us."

Furthermore, we firmly disagree with Russia's unreasonable demands. The status of Outer Mongolia and Manchuria has always been clear, and the border between China and Russia should be demarcated in accordance with the Treaty of Nerchinsk…”

The Russians' proposal for a ceasefire was never genuine; it was merely a way to silence anti-war elements within their own country. Upon learning that the Western Route Army was surrounded by the Chinese, Far East Governor-General Alekseev decided to further escalate the war, as he could not tolerate its ending in this manner, which meant he would bear the responsibility for the failed adventure.

The telegram from Kuropatkin made him realize that the war in the Far East would soon be irrelevant to him. After all, China did not have a navy, and he could not send warships to Beijing to occupy it, which meant that he could no longer salvage his honor.

Under these circumstances, Alekseev decided to open a third front, abandoning his promises to various countries not to attack the coastal areas south of Shanhaiguan. In other words, he planned to send warships to attack Qinhuangdao port, conduct a landing operation south of Shanhaiguan, and then directly advance into the North China Plain.

On June 7, General Alekseyev, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Far East Forces, announced to the consuls of various countries stationed in Tianjin that the Russian Far East Forces would no longer recognize the Chinese coastline outside Tianjin as a non-combat zone. This note directly provoked strong protests from the British and Japanese ministers.

That evening, the Tokyo Cabinet held an emergency meeting. Both the army and navy believed that the opportunity to start a war had appeared. Under the leadership of Foreign Minister Komura, the Cabinet decided to submit a formal protest to the Tsarist government the following day through the Minister to Russia, arguing that the Russian military's actions in the Far East had disrupted the order in East Asia and that Japan could not stand idly by.

On June 8, Russian Foreign Minister Ramsdorf was very surprised when he received the letter of protest from Japan. Before and after the conflict between Russia and China, Russia had been communicating with Japan. After all, the Russians were well aware that Russia's biggest rival in East Asia was Japan, not China, and that China was merely Russia's prey.

Japan had always maintained a cautious stance, only demanding the preservation of its interests in southern Korea, which reassured the Russian military and allowed it to launch its war against China. However, Japan's rapid change of attitude is difficult for the Russians to understand. Ramsdorf considers it a treacherous and despicable act.

Regardless of the circumstances, the protest submitted by the Japanese signaled that they were prepared to enter the war in the Far East. Although Ramsdorf was filled with anger towards the Japanese, he was unwilling to let them join the war at this time. He could only ask the Japanese what they wanted, attempting to appease them diplomatically first.

However, the Japanese military advisors stationed in Beiyang had learned from Yuan Shikai's staff that Russia had requested a ceasefire from China. Although the conditions proposed by the Russians were absurd, it indicated that Russia had the intention to end the war. The Japanese army believed that it could not wait any longer; they had prepared for so long not to see Russia and China shake hands and make peace. The Japanese navy also believed that the opportunity to strike had arrived, because Russia was preparing to send a fleet to escort the army to land at Qinhuangdao, which presented a golden opportunity to destroy the Russian warships.

Japan's responses to Russia's inquiries were vague, but on June 9, Japan dispatched ships to Lushun to evacuate its citizens. On the same day, the Japanese cabinet obtained an imperial decree from the Emperor, which meant that the power to wage war had been transferred to the cabinet, and Japan was ready to go to war.

Chapter 369 The Japanese Army and the Beiyang Fleet

On June 10, after learning of Alekseyev's plan to open a third front in Qinhuangdao, Makarov, the naval commander of Kronstadt in St. Petersburg, immediately wrote to the Navy Ministry to warn that "the main adversary of our Far East Navy is Japan. Before we understand Japan's true position on this war, the Far East Fleet cannot be distracted by protecting the army and carrying out any amphibious operations."

Therefore, the existence of our Far East Fleet is precisely the guarantee to prevent Japan from making rash moves. Once this fleet abandons its main mission and gives the Japanese navy the right to act freely, then whether Japan will join the war will be entirely a question for Japan to consider unilaterally…”

However, the situation in the Far East changed too quickly, and the bureaucrats in St. Petersburg had no time to react. On the morning of June 10, the Russian Pacific Fleet, consisting of the battleships "Tsarevich" and "Poltava," the fast battleships "Victory" and "Peresvet," and the cruisers "Askold" and "Diana," escorted a brigade of Russian troops towards Qinhuangdao, preparing to open a third front.

After the Russian escort fleet entered the Laotieshan Channel from Lushun, it was immediately discovered by a Japanese spy ship disguised as a fishing boat. The spy ship immediately sent a radio message to Yantai, and then the Japanese intelligence officers stationed in Yantai immediately sent back to Japan the information on the departure time and number of ships of the Russian fleet.

Before Japan delivered its protest to St. Petersburg on June 8, Japanese diplomats visited Yuan Shikai, expressing Japan's willingness to further support China, but demanding that China assure Japan that it would not unilaterally negotiate peace with Russia.

Yuan Shikai wanted more support from Japan, but he didn't want to become a true sworn enemy of Russia, so he consistently avoided the issue. The Japanese were temporarily rendered speechless by Yuan Shikai's actions. As Yuan Shikai's personal advisor, Aoki Nobuzumi could only inquire about his true thoughts during private meetings.

After a moment's thought, Yuan Shikai said to the Japanese advisor, "Today's China is not one that the Beiyang government can control at will. I have the imperial court above me, governors and viceroys below me, and the neighboring provinces of Huguang eyeing me covetously. How can I casually grant your country's promises? If your country truly wants to help me, then you should wait until I have strengthened my power first. Otherwise, if I make a promise to your country here, and tomorrow the newspapers are all pointing fingers at me and cursing me, how can that promise still stand?"

Aoki Nobuzumi realized that it would be difficult to persuade Yuan Shikai in a short time. Given China's current advantage on the battlefield, getting Yuan to bow to Japan was indeed unrealistic, a situation Japan hadn't anticipated before the war. After all, following the First Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese military largely held a contemptuous attitude towards the Chinese, especially after the Eight-Nation Alliance occupied Beijing, this contempt became even more widespread.

Therefore, although the army planned the battle between Russia and China, the army's assessment of the war showed that China would either suffer a crushing defeat or suffer continuous setbacks. This is why the army spared no effort in supporting the Beiyang Army in the early stages of the war.

They worried that the Chinese army would be defeated too quickly, and the war would end before Japan could join in, or that the Chinese would fail to wear down the Russian army, which would cause major problems when the army joined the war.

However, to the army's surprise, the two armies, which were clearly enemies, were able to join forces with the Beiyang Army to resist the Russian army when it launched an attack on Beijing. The Chinese army, with the Wuhan militia as its core, demonstrated the strength of the Beiyang Army in the battle.

Although the army sent many advisors to help Yuan Shikai improve the combat effectiveness of the Beiyang Army, the army was not really there to help China build a strong army. They just did not want the development of the Chinese army to get out of their sights and become a troublesome opponent for the army in the future.

The Japanese believed that Yuan Shikai also distrusted them, as he consistently favored German military organization and equipment. However, the Germans ignored Yuan's overtures and had no intention of supporting the Beiyang Army. This was also related to German interests in Shandong, where Yuan Shikai's rise to power was based. Therefore, the Germans were quite wary of him, fearing he might become a rival hindering their expansion in Shandong.

However, the Germans had no qualms about supporting Wuhan, since the Yangtze River basin was British territory, and a strong Wuhan would only cause trouble for the British. Similarly, the Japanese had the same mentality regarding supporting the Beiyang Army. At that time, China was a shared colony of the great powers, and Japan couldn't penetrate deeply into it. Therefore, supporting the Beiyang Army would cause trouble for the Russians and Germans, which naturally made them more at ease.

However, Japan, being a relatively new island nation, possessed a narrow-minded island perspective, which led to its half-hearted support for the Beiyang Fleet. As a result, while the Beiyang Fleet was quite friendly towards the Japanese, it didn't truly trust them. Given Japan's limited understanding of European learning and its tendency to hold back its strengths when dealing with the Beiyang Fleet, it was unrealistic to expect any dramatic improvement in the Beiyang Fleet's fighting capabilities.

Therefore, based on their usual assessments of the Beiyang Army, the army generals believed that this army would definitely not be able to withstand the attack of a European army, because the Beiyang Army had never experienced a real large-scale combat exercise. The Beiyang soldiers joined the army for money and food, not for the country, and they lacked the courage to sacrifice for the country.

The Beiyang Army's upper echelons lacked the ability to command large-scale battles, while its lower ranks lacked the motivation of nationalism and statism. Therefore, the Russian army only needed to launch one charge to defeat this half-baked army.

The only thing the army hadn't anticipated was that the Chinese would use trench warfare to address their lack of organizational skills. By deploying troops within trenches, they required almost no command; officers only needed to supervise soldiers to prevent desertion. The Qing army was actually quite familiar with this tactic, as the Xiang Army and Huai Army had used it in the past, except that positional warfare back then didn't involve soldiers hiding in trenches and firing.

Compared to the Beiyang Army, the Hubei New Army, though less well-trained, clearly understood who they were fighting for. Therefore, they displayed a more resilient will and courage in battle than the Russian army, inspiring their fellow Beiyang soldiers. This combination of factors resulted in the Chinese army demonstrating a strength that the regular army could never have predicted.

According to Tamura Iyozo's comment: Even if the Russian army were replaced by the Japanese army, they could not have fought as well as the Russian army. The Chinese fully utilized the advantages of defensive tactics that the disadvantaged side could use. They can only be thankful for one thing: that the Chinese were not awakened to this extent during the First Sino-Japanese War.

Aoki Nobuzumi was sent to persuade Yuan Shikai, merely because some in the army hoped for a miracle: that the Chinese would voluntarily transfer their advantages to Japan, thus giving Japan a favorable position in the war. According to the army's thinking, China should cooperate with Japan in the war and, more importantly, obey Japan's guidance in diplomacy. This way, when China and Japan confronted Russia, they could exert greater strength and achieve victory more easily.

However, Yuan Shikai was not a member of the imperial family like Puwei, who would deliberately squander a winning hand. He did not oppose Japan joining the war, since he knew that China at that time was powerless to stop it, and it was better to have Japan on his side than to have them side with Russia.

However, he refused to request Japan to join the war, even though he knew the Russians planned to open a third front in Qinhuangdao. He felt that such an invitation would likely lead to worse consequences. Russia was clearly desperate; if they could withstand this attack, they would genuinely consider peace.

But if he were to submit a request to join the war now, as demanded by the Japanese, it would undoubtedly attract a hungry wolf, and he would have no idea how the war would turn out.

Seeing Yuan Shikai's resolute attitude, Aoki Nobuzumi had no choice but to say to him, "As a friend, I must tell Governor Yuan some news. As far as we know, the navy has close ties with Wuhan. If you do not stand with the army, then when the navy and Wuhan reach an agreement, we may find it difficult to continue supporting you."

Yuan Shikai sized up Aoki Nobuyuki several times before chuckling, "Your country's navy has close ties with Wuhan. How could Wuhan possibly sink your warships with mines? General Aoki, you must be joking with me."

Aoki Nobuyuki could only add helplessly, "Among the officers sent from Wuhan to Tibet and India, there were graduates of the Japanese Naval Landing School. As far as I know, lower-ranking officers in the Wuhan military generally go to the Naval Landing School for training, while mid- to high-ranking officers go to Germany. The sinking of the Yangtze River warship was merely an accident and did not cause a breakdown in relations between the two sides."

Of course, this information is also top secret in our country, and I would never have revealed it if it weren't for you. But I feel it's necessary to warn you, Governor-General, that if relations between Japan and China undergo new changes, and you and the Army fail to establish closer ties, then Sino-Japanese relations will be dictated by the Navy and Wuhan. At that point, the Army will likely have no choice but to abandon its support for the Beiyang Fleet.

Seeing Aoki's serious expression, Yuan Shikai finally hesitated. Compared to other Japanese, he trusted Aoki more, after all, the man had been quite diligent when serving as his advisor. After a moment, he finally spoke, "In that case, I'm afraid I need to talk to the representatives in Wuhan first. Otherwise, even if I make a request to your country, Wuhan can still openly oppose it, and then the relationship between China and Japan will become even more complicated."

Aoki Nobuzumi could only agree. Pressuring Yuan Shikai too much would worsen relations between the two sides, which was not what he wanted. After all, as an intelligence agent, he had already spent too much time infiltrating the Beiyang Army and couldn't afford to abandon this force and start over. Furthermore, the growing strength of the Beiyang Army would lead to his continuous rise in the Army General Staff, making it a mutually beneficial relationship.

Yuan Shikai sent a telegram to Qin Lishan hoping to meet him. Qin Lishan then took the train arranged by Yuan Shikai that evening and arrived in Tianjin. Yuan Shikai went directly to the train carriage and had a private conversation with him.

Chapter 370 The Use of Congress

Yuan Shikai and Qin Lishan made it clear that both of them were currently under the spotlight, and if outsiders knew about their public contact, it would inevitably arouse unnecessary suspicion in the court. That's why he chose to have a private conversation with Qin Lishan in the car.

Qin Lishan did not come at Yuan Shikai's invitation. He also had something he wanted to discuss with him, so he preferred this private conversation, which meant that Yuan Shikai would not be too influenced by others.

At the beginning of the conversation, Yuan Shikai was concerned about the current situation of the Russian Western Route Army, whether Wuhan could really annihilate the besieged Russian army, and what their next actions would be, among other military questions.

Qin Lishan thought for a moment and then said, "According to the latest intelligence from the front, the Russian army has lost its ability to attack. They are now stationed in place and waiting for friendly forces to come to their rescue. Therefore, the front-line command believes that this Russian army will completely collapse within one to two weeks."

We still hope that Russian reinforcements can continue to arrive; after all, waiting for them to come to us is much easier than launching an attack. If we can continue to draw the Russian army towards Xuanda, it will also relieve the pressure on Shanhaiguan, won't it?

Yuan Shikai nodded slightly and said, "That's right. According to the information I received from consuls of various countries, the encirclement of the Russian Western Route Army has dealt a great blow to the Governor-General of the Far East. It is said that this Governor-General of the Far East will soon lose his power to preside over the war in the Far East."

Therefore, he is now extremely eager to reverse the unfavorable situation on the battlefield. In addition to sending reinforcements to the Western Route Army, he also plans to launch a landing operation in other coastal areas besides Tianjin. It is estimated that Qinhuangdao is the best place to land a large force.

Although we have made some preparations for Qinhuangdao, if the Russians were to actually launch a forced landing there, it would mean a further expansion of the war. I hope the Hanyang Arsenal can send another batch of ammunition and firearms.”

Qin Lishan thought for a moment and then said, "I will send a telegram to Wuhan about this issue. As long as we can stop the Russian attack, we will always support them."

With the supply of military equipment resolved, Yuan Shikai breathed a sigh of relief. Once Japan joined the war, the Japanese would certainly not support the Beiyang Army as diligently as before. Even if there were no problem with funds, the transportation distance to purchase military equipment from Europe would be too far. Therefore, the support of the Hanyang Arsenal became the key to whether the war could continue.

Although Yuan Shikai still controlled two machine factories—the Tianjin Arsenal and the Jiangnan Arsenal—capable of producing weapons and equipment, these factories relied entirely on imported raw materials. Essentially, their production was no different from importing from Europe. Under wartime conditions, their production capacity couldn't keep up with the demand for weapons and ammunition. Only the Hanyang Arsenal was different. This was a weapons manufacturing plant supported by a nearly complete heavy industrial system, allowing it to continuously increase its production capacity. Yuan Shikai now realized just how significant the gap between these two in the context of war truly was.

However, at this point he had no time to study how to establish the Beiyang heavy industry system; such a matter could only be considered after the war. He then changed the subject and informed Qin Lishan of Japan's impending participation in the war, but the Japanese hoped that China would request Japan's participation through a Sino-Japanese alliance.

Qin Lishan stood there stunned for about fifteen minutes. Although Yuan Shikai was anxious, he waited patiently. Finally, Qin Lishan spoke, "The Japanese are clearly not joining the war at this time to help us, or even for Korea. What they want is probably Manchuria. If we ask Japan to join the war, what will we offer them as a reward? We can't just hand over Manchuria as payment, can we? Then what are we fighting for?"

Seeing that Qin Lishan could see through Japan's purpose in joining the war, Yuan Shikai immediately relaxed. He was afraid that the other party was unaware of the situation and really regarded the Japanese as benevolent people. Although this would reduce the threat level in Wuhan by a level, it would also put the Beiyang Army in a predicament of being unable to support itself alone, because he could not be sure whether the other party would join forces with the Japanese to deal with the Beiyang Army.

He nodded heavily and said, "That's exactly the point. If Mr. Qin can see this, how could I not? Inviting the Japanese to participate in the war is like asking a tiger for its skin. We've driven away the Russians, but we've attracted even hungrier wolves."

After the First Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese were already filled with greed for Manchuria. If it weren't for the Triple Intervention, they would have already turned the Liaodong Peninsula into their own territory. Now, they are nominally helping our country, but in reality, they just want to replace the Russians. They are completely treating us like fools.

However, since we are currently at war with Russia, we cannot afford to offend Japan too much. What do you think is the best way to handle this situation?

Qin Lishan realized that although Yuan Shikai was an outstanding figure, capable of transforming the Huai Army into the Beiyang Army—a feat that was beyond the capabilities of ordinary people, at least not something he could accomplish—Yuan Shikai still suffered from a common flaw among Qing Dynasty officials: an unwillingness to take risks that exceeded his personal gains.

To put it more bluntly, he lacked the courage to take charge. So even though the Qing Dynasty had already had to relinquish power, Yuan Shikai, in order to avoid taking on more responsibility, still held the court in high esteem. While this certainly saved him a lot of trouble, it also limited the Beiyang government from becoming a nationwide military and political force.

For example, regarding Japan's request, Yuan Shikai knew that the imperial court couldn't make the decision. In fact, only he himself could make the decision. After all, he was now the Governor-General of Zhili and a Grand Councilor, and the military and political power of the Qing Dynasty was almost entirely in his hands. If he didn't make the decision, who would? But he handed over the decision-making power in this way, which did show a lack of sense of ownership.

However, Qin Lishan would not miss such an opportunity. Wuhan would hold on tightly to any power that the Qing Dynasty had lost, because they were now representing the people in reclaiming that power. So he did not hesitate to put forward his opinion: "Why not submit the Japanese request to the preparatory parliament? Although the current parliament cannot truly represent all the people, it is at least a nominal representative body with sufficient legal grounds to review this issue. In this way, Governor-General Yuan will not have to worry about dealing with the Japanese, and the parliament can actually do something practical instead of just spinning its wheels all day."

"Hand it over to the National Assembly?" Yuan Shikai looked at Qin Lishan in surprise. He couldn't quite accept the other's line of thinking. How could such a matter be brought up for discussion among a group of unrelated people? This was a matter of national importance. Although he supported the constitutionalists, he never thought that members of parliament were equals to him in discussing matters of national importance. He felt that they were just a group of state advisors who could handle small matters, but the truly important matters should naturally be handled by state officials like them.

The reason he was willing to discuss this matter with Wuhan was that Wuhan had become the de facto representative of the southern forces. The Beiyang government was not confident in suppressing the other side, so it tried to reach an agreement with the other side to avoid unnecessary internal strife. This was the same reason why Zhang Zhidong defended him in the court. They were representatives of equally powerful groups. Fighting would only benefit a third party. But if they united, what could they not handle in the country?

However, Qin Lishan made a suggestion that left Yuan Shikai silent for a long time before he spoke up tactfully: "Isn't this a bit inappropriate? The Japanese haven't announced the severance of relations with Russia yet. There are too many people in the National Assembly, and if this news gets out, it will only anger the Japanese and make the Russians wary. It won't do us any good."

Qin Lishan, however, had already thought things through. He calmly replied, "We don't need to reveal Japan's intention to send troops. We just need to propose whether to request Japan to mediate. In addition, we should not only consider the Japanese issue, but also include the French issue, such as asking whether France guarantees to remain neutral in this war."