chsdbacks Chapter 139 The Bet of 20,000
Chapter 139 The Bet of 20,000
After the announcement of the Flying Bird Technology Summit, the industry's reaction was divided into two distinct camps.
Those who are optimistic believe that Su Chen is about to unleash another major breakthrough. From the Feiniao S1 to H-Link 2.0 and the Feiniao SDK ecosystem, Su Chen's every new release has reshaped the industry landscape. His claim that this product "can change the industry landscape" is unlikely to be mere boasting.
Those who are pessimistic believe that Su Chen is bluffing. With DRIE stalled, lithography machine delays, and MEMS self-development seemingly a distant prospect, what's the point of holding a "technology summit" under these circumstances? It's nothing more than a pep talk to investors and partners.
But whether they're optimistic or pessimistic, everyone wants to come and see.
The hook that Su Chen released was perfect.
"A product that can change the landscape of the industry"—who wouldn't want to know what that is?
……
Meanwhile, the pricing issue of the Flying Bird Industry Alliance has sparked even wider controversy.
In particular, there is the 200 million annual strategic membership fee.
In the conference room of a drone company in Shenzhen.
"Two million? Does Su Chen think we have too much money to spend?"
The speaker was He Jun, Vice President of Technology at Xiangyu UAV. Xiangyu UAV is a long-term partner of the Feiniao platform, with annual revenue exceeding 100 million yuan, ranking among the top five in the power line inspection field.
"The annual fee is 200 million, plus the cost of purchasing modules, plus our own R&D costs—I've done the math, and if we sign up for strategic memberships, our annual expenditure on the Feiniao platform will exceed 500 million."
He Jun slammed a financial calculation sheet on the table:
"500 million! And what about DJI? Their SDK is free, their modules are 300 yuan cheaper, and their technical support is also free. Our annual expenditure on FlightCore is probably no more than 200 million."
"The difference is 300 million. 300 million is enough for us to hire 15 more engineers."
The senior executives in the conference room looked at each other in bewilderment.
He Jun's calculations are correct. From a purely short-term financial perspective, switching to FlightCore is indeed more cost-effective.
However, Chen Hongda, the founder and CEO of Xiangyu Drones, has remained silent.
He was looking out the window.
After He Jun finished speaking, he slowly opened his mouth:
"Your calculations are correct. In the short term, DJI is indeed cheaper."
"But you've overlooked one crucial point."
He Jun frowned: "What account?"
"The cost of supply chain risks."
Chen Hongda turned around and looked at He Jun:
"Have you forgotten about Murata's MEMS supply disruption this year? Our inventory is only enough for three months. If Bosch also has problems—our entire production line will shut down."
"How much would you lose if production were to stop for a month? Have you calculated it?"
He Jun fell silent.
Of course he had calculated it.
Xiangyu Drones' power line inspection business generates over 800 million yuan in revenue per month. A month-long production halt not only results in an 800 million yuan revenue loss—but also penalties for breach of contract, customer loss, and brand damage…
The total loss is at least 1500 million.
"A loss of 1500 million, and you're telling me that a strategic membership fee of 200 million is too expensive?" Chen Hongda's voice wasn't loud, but it was very powerful.
"And—have you even seriously looked at that 'Qixin MEMS Priority Supply Right' in the strategic membership list?"
"If Hongyuan truly develops domestically produced MEMS—even if it only reaches 80% of the level of Bosch's BMI270—we will have another alternative channel that is not constrained by the international supply chain."
"How much is this passageway worth? 200 million? 2000 million?"
He Jun opened his mouth, but no words came out.
Chen Hongda continued:
"I'm not betting that Hungyuan will definitely be able to make MEMS. I'm buying insurance."
"We're buying an insurance policy for 200 million yuan—if Hongyuan succeeds, we'll be among the first beneficiaries. If Hongyuan fails—our only loss is the 200 million yuan and a year's worth of technical services."
"But if we don't buy this insurance—and if the supply chain breaks down again—we could lose the entire company."
He Jun remained silent for a long time.
Finally, he asked a question: "How will FlightCore respond?"
"No reply," Chen Hongda said. "We'll continue using Feiniao. I'll handle the strategic membership agreement."
"But—" He Jun wanted to say something more.
"That's the decision." Chen Hongda waved his hand, his tone leaving no room for argument.
He Jun shut his mouth.
He knew—the boss had already made a decision.
Although he still felt that 200 million was too expensive, he had to admit that the "supply chain risk" that his boss mentioned was something he hadn't considered.
……
Similar debates are not limited to Xiangyu Drones.
Among the more than 370 partners on the Feibiao platform, the industry alliance's pricing has sparked extensive internal discussions.
Most small and medium-sized enterprises chose to continue as basic members—free of charge, without increasing costs.
Some medium-sized enterprises opted for premium memberships—the annual fee of 50 is a significant expense for them, but the value of customized flight control solutions and industry solutions is undeniable.
Those who choose strategic membership are all major clients with annual revenue exceeding 100 million.
As of mid-October, the membership structure of the Bird Industry Alliance was as follows:
Basic members: 327 (of which about 15 are considering switching to FlightCore)
Premium Members: 35
Strategic members: 9 (1 more than a week ago – Xiangyu UAV)
There are a total of 371 companies.
When outsiders saw this data, their assessment was summed up in two words: dismal.
Of the 371 partners, only 44 upgraded to paid memberships. The upgrade rate was less than 12%.
The "low-altitude observer" on Zhihu posted another update:
"Two weeks after the launch of the Flying Bird Industry Alliance, the upgrade rate was less than 12%. Among the more than 370 partners, over 88% chose to continue as free basic members."
What does this mean? It means that the vast majority of partners believe that Hongyuan's pricing is too high.
It's important to note that this figure of over 370 is from before FlightCore and LDCL 3.0 officially launched. Once FlightCore 2.0 is officially released in mid-October, at least 10% of these basic members will likely switch to DJI.
Su Chen's pricing strategy is driving small and medium-sized customers toward DJI.
I don't know what he's thinking.
This update received 1800 likes.
In the comments section, someone chimed in, "Hongyuan is digging his own grave."
Some countered: "You only see the 12% upgrade rate, but have you calculated the total annual revenue from 44 paid memberships? 3350 million. A mod company can earn 3350 million a year just from membership fees—and you're telling me that's dismal?"
However, this rebuttal only received a little over 200 likes and was drowned out by the doubts.
……
Su Chen saw these discussions.
He didn't say anything.
Because he knew something that all the outside commentators didn't know—
The annual revenue of 3350 million from those 44 paid memberships is indeed significant. But that's not the main point.
The key point is the G1 gateway.
The G1 gateway is the real money-making machine.
Annual fee revenue is a steady stream of income; the G1 gateway is the real threat.
If the technology summit on October 28th goes smoothly—the G1 gateway will make its mark in the industry—
Those basic members who are still hesitating will naturally upgrade after seeing the capabilities of the G1 gateway.
Because the G1 gateway is only open to premium and strategic members.
Basic membership – unavailable.
This is Su Chen's true strategy—
Industry alliances are the entry point.
The G1 gateway is a lock.
Microelectronics is the key to unlocking the potential of MEMS.
Three nested layers, each interlocking with the next.
……
While Su Chen was busy preparing for the technology summit, his opponents were not idle either.
10 month 12 day.
DJI headquarters, Chen Jiaming's office.
"The Flying Bird Technology Summit?" Chen Jiaming frowned slightly as he looked at the information his assistant handed him.
"Yes. October 28th, Shenzhen," the assistant said. "There's a lot of interest in the industry right now. Several leading drone companies have already confirmed their attendance."
"Is Su Chen going to release Xi Yao?"
"I don't know. The announcement only mentioned 'new hardware products that can change the industry landscape.'"
Chen Jiaming remained silent for a few seconds.
"Changing the industry landscape"—these six words made him uncomfortable.
The last time Su Chen talked about "changing the industry landscape," the Flybird S1 and H-Link 2.0 emerged, directly excluding DJI from the communication ecosystem of industrial drones.
What is Su Chen up to this time?
"The release date for FlightCore 2.0 remains unchanged," Chen Jiaming said. "October 15th, as originally planned."
"But I want to add one more thing—to give an industry-level demonstration of FlightCore 2.0. Not a consumer-grade demonstration, but an industry-level one, targeting logistics and inspection scenarios."
"Su Chen wants to penetrate the industry market; we can't let him monopolize it."
The assistant nodded: "Understood."
Chen Jiaming leaned back in his chair, his eyes slightly narrowed.
Su Chen.
Every time he thought Hongyuan was about to be driven to the brink of despair—DRIE was stalled, the lithography machine was delayed, the supply chain was cut off—Su Chen always managed to come up with something new.
Bird Industry Alliance. Technology Summit. New Hardware Products.
This guy—he's like an unkillable cockroach.
wrong.
It's not a cockroach.
It's like a spring. The harder you press it, the higher it bounces.
Chen Jiaming's eyes sharpened.
"How's the preparation for FlightCore 2.0 going on with Wang Rui?"
"Mass production is ready, and the first batch of 10 modules has been put into storage."
"Okay. After the release on October 15th, it needs to be rolled out to all channels in the first week. I want FlightCore 2.0 to become the industry's default option before Su Chen's tech summit."
"clear."
……
the same day.
Headquarters of Hangxindatong.
He Zhiqiang was also looking at the news about the Flying Bird Technology Summit.
His reaction differed from Chen Jiaming's—
He smiled.
"A technology summit? Great."
He Zhiqiang asked Liu Boyuan, "How's the new round of LDCL 3.0 licensee recruitment going?"
"Currently, 22 companies have signed new licensing agreements, which is 8 more than the number of companies that signed agreements during the same period of LDCL 2.0," Liu Boyuan replied.
"Okay. Su Chen will hold his tech summit, and we'll continue with our licensing."
He Zhiqiang's fingers tapped lightly on the table:
Do you know what Su Chen's biggest weakness is right now?
"Drie is stuck?"
"No. It's time."
He Zhiqiang's eyes deepened:
"All of Su Chen's plans—industry alliances, technology summits, and the launch of MEMS—are based on one premise: that he can produce domestically made MEMS in a sufficiently short time."
"If MEMS (Micro-MEMS) technology isn't developed soon—and those strategic members pay 200 million annually for a year or two without seeing any sign of MEMS—will they continue paying?"
"Su Chen is selling expectations now. And expectations have a limited shelf life."
"So what we need to do is—delay."
"DRIE's export control review continues to drag on. Oxford Instruments' 'letter of concern' could be delayed for at least 3 to 6 months. SÜSS's optical components are also delayed for at least 3 to 4 months."
"If we just stall Hongyuan's MEMS for a year or two—then those strategic members will leave on their own. We won't need to lift a finger."
Liu Boyuan nodded: "Understood. I'll contact Yamada Kazuhiko right away to confirm the latest progress of the export control review."
He Zhiqiang smiled slightly.
Time is Su Chen's greatest enemy.
And time—that happens to be their best weapon.
……
Does Su Chen know this?
of course I know.
He knew better than anyone else that time was not on his side.
DRIE's self-developed technology will take time.
MEMS design verification takes time.
Production line construction takes time.
Every extra day that passes gives competitors an extra opportunity to erode his market share.
Therefore, he cannot wait.
The G1 gateway was his weapon for "buying time".
The high profits from the G1 gateway are used to fund the research and development of MEMS.
The service fees from the industry alliance are used to maintain the cohesion of the Flying Bird ecosystem.
Lock in major customers by using "Qixin MEMS priority supply rights".
By taking a three-pronged approach, we can buy enough time for our self-developed MEMS.
This is Su Chen's entire strategy—
Use every penny you earn today to buy a little time tomorrow.
And that "tomorrow"—
That was the day DRIE, part of the Kaishan Project, went offline.
He must live until that day comes.
And they must thrive—well enough that everyone believes Hongyuan will not fall.
Only in this way will strategic members continue to pay that 200 million.
Only in this way can Shen Zhiming and Chen Guodong focus on their work as DRIE.
Only in this way can Li Wei freely design MEMS chips at Microchip Sensing.
Confidence is the most expensive currency.
And Su Chen—is the one responsible for building confidence.
……
That evening, Su Chen made a phone call to Zhou Zhenguo.
"Mr. Zhou, the invitation to the Flying Bird Technology Summit has been sent to your email. It will be held on October 28th in Shenzhen. I will be announcing a new product there—specifically designed for managing large-scale drone fleets."
"I think this product—and the drone logistics network that Lianchuang Group is planning—will create some interesting synergy."
There was a two-second silence on the other end of the phone.
Then Zhou Zhenguo laughed: "President Su, you've laid a really good trap."
"I will definitely be there."